does talent matter?

During Wednesday's viewing party of the first round of women's semifinals, I made a casual observation that when it comes to AI, it's not at all about talent.
I thought it was a straightforward fact, knowledge that certainly came with watching five full seasons of upsets and victories. Some of my viewing partners, however, disagreed almost instantly, saying that talent has to reign supreme in the reality show's overall equation.
I still don't think that's true.
Don't get me wrong -- I'd be the last one to say all "Idol" contestants lack talent. In fact, I've seen at least one song rendition per season that I wish would have been recorded by the contestant rather than the million-albums-sold original artist.
But here's the thing: knowing AI's mechanics, as well as the outcomes of seasons past, I don't know how anyone could say this is a talent competition. First, look at the auditions alone. The fact that in the very preliminary stages, good singers are actually passed on so enough TV-worthy losers can make it to the auditions should say something in itself.
Still not convinced? Consider the dynamics that feed into voting. The prevalence of Web sites like Vote for the Worst indicates people aren't always interested in rooting for the next Whitney Houston. Sure, contestants like Scott Savol and Jasmine Trias didn't go on to win the big shebang, but they garnered enough votes to give the boot to hopefuls with much better voices.
AI is about marketability. I don't know how you could argue otherwise. That's why, even though I won't deny that Melinda Doolittle and Lakisha Jones are talented, I'm far from sure they'll win the competition. Just consider past belters like LaToya London, Tamyra Gray and Jennifer Hudson. People want uniqueness. Just think how superstar Mandisa's talent didn't translate into country week last season -- which was, coincidentally, the week she got eliminated.
Ruben Studdard won with an ongoing persona as the "Velvet Teddy Bear." Taylor Hicks won as the fearless leader of Soul Patrol. Carrie Underwood won because we'd never had a country Idol. Fantasia won because her raspy voice, and single-mom story, translated into uniqueness.
And Kelly Clarkson? Kelly Clarkson won, but really only achieved success once she distanced herself from the AI brand. Think of "Since U Been Gone," perhaps her best-known hit yet. Without a doubt, it's markedly different from "A Moment Like This," the sappy sound with which AI producers wanted us to identify her.
In short, Clarkson only became an Idol once she turned anti-idol.
Is there talent in these ranks? Sure. But is it talent that's any different from their 11 counterparts in each season? Maybe not.
These Idols and other contestants -- like last season's Kellie Pickler, who won my heart when she called her fake eyelashes "tarantulas" -- were talented, but separated themselves from the pack only by setting their personalities to a different key.
Let me know what you think.